Original Text
Sun Tzu said: War is a matter of vital importance to the state, a matter of life and death for the people, a path to survival or ruin. It must be studied with the utmost care and deliberation.
Therefore, a careful comparative analysis must be conducted from five aspects to understand the true situation of both the enemy and ourselves, thereby predicting the likelihood of victory or defeat in war. These five aspects are: first, the Way; second, Heaven; third, Earth; fourth, the Commander; and fifth, Law. The Way means aligning the people with the ruler in political thought, so that the people can share life and death with the ruler without fearing any danger. Heaven refers to the climatic conditions of day and night, clear or rainy weather, severe cold and intense heat, and the seasons of spring, summer, autumn, and winter during military operations. Earth refers to the geographical conditions of the battlefield, such as the distance of roads, the ease or difficulty of terrain, the width or narrowness of the area, and whether it is a deadly or survivable position. The Commander means assessing whether the general leading the troops is resourceful, honest and loyal, benevolent to his subordinates, courageous and decisive, and strict in military discipline. Law refers to the organization and regulations of the army, the allocation of responsibilities and management of personnel, and the control and use of weapons, equipment, and military supplies. A commander must deeply understand these five aspects. Only those who truly comprehend and master these conditions can achieve victory in war. Therefore, a further comparative analysis must be conducted from the following seven aspects to explore the situation of victory or defeat between the enemy and ourselves: compare which ruler is politically upright and has correct policies and guidelines; which commander is wise and talented; which side possesses favorable timing and terrain; which side has strict military discipline and enforces laws rigorously; which side has stronger military forces; which side has well-trained soldiers; and which side manages its army effectively with clear rewards and punishments. Based on these factors, I can predict who will win and who will lose.
If a general heeds my strategies and employs them in battle, victory is certain—keep him. If he ignores my strategies and still commands, defeat is inevitable—dismiss him. Having adopted plans that ensure victory, one must also create a favorable momentum as an external condition to support military action. This favorable momentum means taking flexible measures and actions based on advantageous circumstances to maintain strategic initiative.
Warfare is the art of using deception and surprise to defeat the enemy. Therefore, when capable of fighting, appear incapable; when ready to attack, seem unprepared; when striking near, make it look like you are striking far; when striking far, make it look like you are striking near. Lure the greedy with small gains; attack the disorganized; be cautious when the enemy is strong; avoid the enemy's sharp edge when they are powerful; provoke the irritable to make them lose reason; make the cautious arrogant to lower their guard; harass the well-rested to exhaust them; sow discord among the united to divide them. Strike where the enemy is unprepared, and act where they least expect it. These are the subtle strategies of the military commander, to be adapted flexibly, not fixed in advance.
Those who win battles make their calculations before the fight, for their advantages are many. Those who lose battles make their calculations before the fight, for their advantages are few. Many advantages lead to victory; few advantages lead to defeat—let alone having no advantages at all. By analyzing both sides in this way, the outcome of the war can be foreseen.
Commentary
This is the first chapter of The Art of War. It begins by clearly stating that war is a matter of life and death for the state, and must be approached with caution. Sun Wu then discusses the five essential factors to be examined in warfare: the Way, Heaven, Earth, the Commander, and Discipline.
The "Calculation" chapter primarily discusses the importance of studying and planning for warfare. By calculating the fundamental conditions that determine victory or defeat, strategic decisions are made, and it introduces the military maxim: "Attack where the enemy is unprepared; appear where you are least expected." When it comes to "calculation," everyone knows the term, and many can casually speak of its role, yet most fail to use it wisely—all because they do not grasp its subtlety. Sun Tzu said: "If the general heeds my calculations, using them will lead to victory—keep him; if the general ignores my calculations, using them will lead to defeat—dismiss him." Clearly, Sun Tzu possessed a set of ingenious strategies to win over people's hearts. Broadly speaking, he offered the following eight tactics: first, adapt to circumstances to gain advantage; second, show action when intending inaction; third, interweave the near and far; fourth, move people with benefits; fifth, seize victory amid chaos; sixth, avoid strong opponents; seventh, skillfully provoke the enemy; eighth, strike where they are unprepared. In short, these are all forms of calculation. As the saying goes, "More calculation leads to victory; less calculation leads to defeat"—meaning calculation must precede action; calculate and win, fail to calculate and lose. This principle applies not only to warfare but also to leadership, personal conduct, and business.
Example Interpretation
Napoleon and Hitler, Who Sighed at the Sky
Sun Tzu pointed out that a campaign must have a just cause, and also said that timing is crucial to the outcome of a war. History bears this out. In many major battles throughout the ages, weather and climate have played an extremely important role. Zhuge Liang's successful scheme to borrow arrows with straw boats owed much to favorable timing and terrain. Similarly, two famous invasions of Russia by foreign powers in history were also influenced by weather and climate.
This was the conquest of Russia by Napoleon's French army in the early 19th century, and the other was Hitler's Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union during World War II. Napoleon's army once occupied Moscow, and Hitler's armored forces also reached the outskirts of Moscow, glimpsing the red star of the Kremlin from afar. Yet neither achieved victory, because the bitter cold of Siberia and the Arctic Circle came to the Russians' aid. Blinding snowstorms and temperatures of minus thirty to forty degrees Celsius made it impossible for the invaders to fight—no drinking water, no warm food, no heated shelters. Worse still, rifle bolts froze in their barrels, cannon tubes cracked mercilessly, and Hitler's trump card—his invincible armored divisions—had their fuel tanks turn into blocks of ice, leaving tanks as piles of scrap metal. Napoleon's myth shattered; this brilliant military commander, who often won against overwhelming odds and triumphed in battle after battle, was defeated by Russia's snow. As he retreated, pursued by Russians all the way, he truly felt the power of timing. When he returned to the banks of the Rhine and counted his men, he found only 98 personal guards had followed him back. His nearly million-strong army, which had conquered much of the world, lay dead along the snowy, desolate road of his campaign. Hitler's end was even more humiliating. He knew the terror of the Soviet winter—Napoleon's lesson was not lost on him—but he was too confident, believing he could destroy the Soviet Union in three months. So he launched his war in June 1941, planning to finish before winter. Unfortunately, he failed. When the cold descended, his victory march lost its tune; when the snow fell for the third time, the Soviet Red Army launched a massive counteroffensive, all the way to the banks of the Rhine.