Chapter 8: Nine Contingencies

Original Text

Sun Tzu said: The general principles of warfare are as follows. The general receives commands from the sovereign, mobilizes the people, and assembles the army. When encountering impassable terrain such as mountain forests, marshes, or swamps—what is called "difficult ground"—do not encamp. On "intersecting ground," where borders of several states meet and roads go in all directions, cultivate alliances with neighboring rulers. On "desolate ground," lacking water, grass, and provisions, with difficult travel and survival nearly impossible, never linger. On "encircled ground," where the terrain is treacherous and the paths narrow, making escape hard, either avoid it or use surprise tactics to break free. On "death ground," where there is no way out and retreat is impossible, fight with desperate resolve to survive. Some roads must not be taken, some enemy forces need not be engaged, some cities should not be attacked, some territories should not be contested, and even certain inappropriate orders from the sovereign may be disobeyed.

Therefore, a commander who thoroughly understands the application and consequences of these strategies knows how to lead troops. A commander who fails to grasp their application and adverse effects, even if familiar with the terrain, cannot turn it to advantage. A general who commands an army without understanding these strategies, even knowing the pros and cons of the five types of terrain, still cannot fully harness the fighting strength of the entire force.

Therefore, a wise commander, when weighing a situation, must consider both advantages and disadvantages. In unfavorable conditions, by fully considering the favorable factors, the campaign can proceed smoothly; in favorable conditions, by fully considering the unfavorable factors, all potential disasters can be prevented in advance.

Therefore, to subdue the feudal lords, threaten them with force; to make them exert effort, create troubles for them; to make them come to you willingly, lure them with small gains.

Therefore, the general principle of warfare is not to rely on the enemy not coming, but to rely on our own readiness to meet them; not to rely on the enemy not attacking, but to rely on our own impenetrable defenses that make the enemy dare not attack.

A commander has five fatal weaknesses: bravery without strategy, leading to death by entrapment; cowardice in battle, leading to capture; a quick temper and stubborn ambition, leading to provocation and deception; excessive concern for reputation, leading to slander and traps; excessive compassion for the people, leading to harassment and passivity. These five traits are the commander's greatest character flaws and the army's ruin. Total defeat and the commander's death all stem from these five dangers. Therefore, one must be vigilant against these five character defects.

Commentary

On the battlefield, circumstances shift endlessly. Victory or defeat depends not only on the relative strength of forces but also on the commander's ability to adapt. Sun Tzu uses the term "nine variations" to describe this flux, highlighting its vastness. Sticking rigidly to fixed rules without adapting naturally leads to defeat by a more flexible opponent. Key military principles here include knowing when to "refrain from action," "disregard the ruler's orders when necessary," and "weigh both advantage and disadvantage." Throughout history, many accomplished strategists have won precisely through their capacity for change.

Example Interpretation

Zhuge Liang Sets an Ambush to Capture Zhang Ren

Many famous generals of ancient times were masters of using terrain in warfare. By leveraging the unique features of mountains, plains, and swamps, they won countless classic battles where the outnumbered defeated the many and the weak overcame the strong.

In 214 AD, Liu Bei deployed Zhuge Liang, Zhang Fei, and others to lead troops in capturing Baidi, Jiangzhou, and Jiangyang. Soon after, Liu Bei besieged Luo City (in present-day Deyang and Guanghan area). Pang Tong led the assault on the city but was tragically killed by a stray arrow fired by the Shu general Zhang Ren. Upon hearing of Pang Tong's death, Zhuge Liang was deeply shocked and personally led troops to Sichuan, sending Zhang Fei ahead.

Wherever Zhang Fei went, the Shu soldiers surrendered at the mere sight of him. Upon reaching Luo City, Zhang Fei met with Liu Bei. Liu Bei and Zhang Fei clashed several times with the city's defender, Zhang Ren, each side claiming victories and defeats, yet Luo City remained firmly in Zhang Ren's grasp.

Just then, Zhuge Liang arrived with his troops and inquired about the situation at Luo City. The surrendered general Wu Yi said, "The defending general Zhang Ren is from Shu Commandery. He is exceptionally bold and resourceful, and should not be underestimated." Zhuge Liang then decided to capture Zhang Ren first before attacking Luo City.

Outside the eastern part of Luo City, there was a bridge called the Golden Wild Goose Bridge. Zhuge Liang rode his horse to the bridge, surveyed the river, and returned to the camp. He said to Huang Zhong and Wei Yan, "Five or six li south of the Golden Wild Goose Bridge, both banks are covered with reeds, perfect for an ambush. Wei Yan, take a thousand spearmen and hide on the left, targeting only the enemy riders on horseback. Huang Zhong, lead a thousand swordsmen and hide on the right, aiming solely at the enemy's mounts. Once the enemy forces are scattered, Zhang Ren will surely flee east along a small path. Zhang Fei, take a thousand troops and lie in ambush along that path to capture Zhang Ren." Then he ordered Zhao Yun to hide north of the Golden Wild Goose Bridge: "After I lure Zhang Ren across the bridge, you will dismantle it. Then deploy troops north of the bridge to prevent Zhang Ren from heading north, forcing him to retreat south into our ambush." After deploying his forces, Zhuge Liang personally went to lure the enemy.

Zhang Ren, learning that Zhuge Liang was approaching to attack the city, hastily left Zhang Yi and others to guard it while he and Zhuo Ying led the front and rear units out of the city to repel the enemy. Zhuge Liang arrived with a ragtag army, crossed the Golden Wild Goose Bridge, and arrayed his forces against Zhang Ren. Riding a four-wheeled cart, wearing a silk headband, and waving a feather fan, Zhuge Liang was flanked by over a hundred cavalry. Pointing at Zhang Ren from afar, he said, "Cao Cao, with his million-strong army, fled in panic at the mere mention of my name. Who are you to dare not surrender?"

Zhang Ren saw that Zhuge Liang's troops were not in proper formation and sneered from his horse, "People say Zhuge Liang commands troops like a god, but it turns out he's just living off a false reputation." With that, he swung his spear and led his forces charging forward. Zhuge Liang, pretending to be terrified, abandoned his four-wheeled carriage, mounted his horse, and retreated across the bridge. Zhang Ren pursued him relentlessly from behind, chasing him all the way past the Jinyan Bridge. Just then, a loud shout rang out as Liu Bei charged from the left and Yan Yan from the right, attacking together. Zhang Ren realized he had fallen into a trap and hastily turned back, only to find the Jinyan Bridge had already been destroyed. He then considered retreating north, but saw Zhao Yun's troops arrayed on the opposite bank, so he dared not go north and instead fled south, skirting along the river.

After traveling less than a few miles, they arrived at a place thick with reeds. Wei Yan's troops suddenly emerged from the reeds, thrusting wildly with long spears; Huang Zhong's forces lay hidden among the reeds, using long blades to slash at the horses' hooves. Zhang Ren's cavalry fell and were captured one after another. Seeing the situation turn dire, the infantry dared not advance further. Zhang Ren had no choice but to lead a few dozen cavalrymen in retreat toward the mountain path, only to run straight into Zhang Fei, who was waiting there. As Zhang Ren tried to fight his way through, Zhang Fei let out a thunderous shout, and his men swarmed in, capturing Zhang Ren alive. His subordinate commander Zhuo Ying, seeing that Zhang Ren had fallen into the trap, surrendered to Zhao Yun.

Zhang Fei escorted Zhang Ren into Liu Bei's tent. Zhuge Liang was also seated beside Liu Bei. Liu Bei said to Zhang Ren, "All the generals in Shu have surrendered upon seeing us. Why don't you surrender?" Zhang Ren glared angrily and shouted, "A loyal minister cannot serve two masters!" Liu Bei said, "You truly do not understand the times! Surrender and you will avoid death." Zhang Ren replied, "Even if I surrender today, I will betray you later. You might as well kill me now!" Liu Bei could not bear to kill him, but Zhang Ren cursed loudly. Zhuge Liang ordered Zhang Ren executed to preserve his honor. Liu Bei sighed deeply and had Zhang Ren's body collected and buried beside the Golden Wild Goose Bridge to honor his loyalty.

Zhuge Liang first surveyed the terrain around Luo City. Then, with his sharp mind, precise calculations, and deep mastery of military strategy, he decisively employed a brilliant plan: lure the enemy in, cut off their retreat, set an ambush, and trap them in a snare.

Albanian Army Sets Trap to Annihilate Opponents

In the 15th century, the Ottoman Empire was a powerful force in Eurasia, frequently launching large-scale invasions into European nations. In June 1444, under the command of the renowned general Ali Pasha, the Ottomans deployed 25,000 troops from the direction of Dibra to invade the small European country of Albania. The Albanian army, led by the national hero Skanderbeg, fought vigorously against the invading Ottoman forces to defend their homeland.

Seeing the Ottoman army advancing with overwhelming arrogance and extreme hubris, Skanderbeg decided to exploit their overconfidence and contempt for the enemy. He lured them into a trap he had designed, aiming to defeat the strong with the weak and annihilate the Ottoman forces completely.

The Albanian army approached the Turkish forces, appearing dispirited and feigning a devastating defeat. They pretended to be struck by the Turks, collapsing across the entire front. Skanderbeg led his troops along a pre-planned route of retreat, withdrawing into the narrow Torviolla Plain, surrounded by mountains and dense forests. Here, hidden among the hills and woods, Skanderbeg had already ambushed the main Albanian forces. During the retreat, the Albanians abandoned large amounts of supplies and weapons along the way, appearing utterly disheveled to convince the Turks beyond doubt.

Seeing the Albanian army retreat into the unfavorable terrain of the Torviola Plain, the Turkish forces were overjoyed, believing the enemy had fallen into a hopeless situation. They thus pursued with all their might. In the end, they themselves fell into the trap the Albanians had long prepared. The waiting Albanian army launched a fierce assault from all sides, while the retreating Albanians turned back to join the attack. Caught completely off guard, the Turkish forces panicked and their formation fell into chaos. In this battle, over 20,000 Turkish soldiers were completely annihilated.

It is evident that terrain is a crucial factor in determining victory or defeat in war. Heaven’s timing is not as important as terrain advantage; the side that holds the terrain holds the initiative.