According to the "Shuo Yuan (Garden of Stories) - Chapter on Weighing Circumstances," it is recorded that when Gongsun Shi of the State of Lu was about to offer sacrifices to his ancestors at the family temple, he lost the three sacrificial animals prepared for the ceremony. Hearing of this, Confucius said, "Gongsun Shi will perish within three years." One year later, the Gongsun Shi clan was indeed destroyed by another clan. A disciple, recalling Confucius's prophecy, asked him: "Last year, when Gongsun Shi forgot the sacrificial animals, you predicted his ruin within three years. Now, just one year later, his clan has been destroyed. You foresaw events with such precision; we wish to know how you predicted their downfall."
Confucius replied, "The principle of sacrifice is to seek, and to seek means to exhaust one's filial devotion to one's mother. If during the sacrifice, the sacrificial animal is lost, then the other things he loses must be even more. Therefore, I know he is headed for ruin." Then he quoted a verse from the Classic of Poetry (Shijing), "As if facing a deep abyss, as if treading on thin ice," and warned his disciples, "A Junzi (Exemplary Person) must always be reverent and cautious in daily life."
In the eighth year of Duke Ding of Lu (502 BCE), Yang Hu (a powerful steward of the Ji family) hosted a banquet for Ji Huanzi (head of the Ji family) at Puyuan, intending to kill him and install Ji Huanzi's concubine-born son, Ji Wu, as successor. Ji Huanzi learned of Yang Hu's plot on the way to the banquet, escaped by trickery, and fled to the Mengsun family. Yang Hu's brother pursued Ji Huanzi but was shot and killed by a retainer of the Mengsun clan.
When Yang Hu saw that his plot had been exposed, he took Duke Ding of Lu hostage, and his subordinate Shusun Wushu (a noble of the State of Lu) openly rebelled. This aroused fierce opposition from all the nobles of Lu. Various families raised troops to besiege Yang Hu, who fled to the State of Qi, surrendering to Qi the cities of Wenyang and Guiyin, which he had occupied along the border.
In Qi State, Yang Hu bribed powerful ministers, and coupled with his merit of offering a city, he quickly gained the favor of Duke Jing of Qi. One day, Yang Hu advised Duke Jing to take advantage of Lu State's internal turmoil and launch an attack on Lu, but Duke Jing hesitated. A minister of Qi reminded Duke Jing: "Yang Hu is highly capable and deeply trusted by the Ji family, yet he sought to kill Ji and bring chaos to Lu. This man once said, 'Those who practice Ren (Benevolence) do not become wealthy; those who become wealthy do not practice Ren.' This shows he is a person who knows only profit and loss, utterly disregarding Yi (Righteousness). Now that Lu has rid itself of this scourge, a wise ruler like you takes him in and trusts him—is this not inviting a wolf into the fold?"
Duke Jing of Qi (ruler of Qi State), as if suddenly enlightened, ordered the arrest of Yang Hu (a powerful but rebellious official of Lu State), imprisoning him in the Qi capital. Yang Hu was indeed remarkably resourceful; he quickly escaped from Qi to Jin State, where he gained the trust and employment of Zhao Jianzi (a prominent minister of Jin State).
When Confucius heard that Yang Hu (a former powerful minister of Lu) had arrived in the State of Jin and become a guest of Zhao Jianzi (a powerful minister of Jin), he said, "The Zhao clan will probably never have a day of peace from now on."
After Yang Hu (a powerful official of the Lu State) fled into exile, his subordinate in the Lu State, Gongshan Furao, also rebelled in the city of Fei and extended an invitation to Confucius. By this time, Confucius had already returned to the State of Lu from Qi more than a decade ago and, through his dedicated study, had developed a complete set of principles for governing the state and bringing peace to the people. Therefore, this invitation from Gongshan Furao stirred his desire to take up an official post; far from declining, he actually intended to go.
Zi Lu (Confucius's straightforward disciple) was displeased and said, "Is there truly nowhere else to go? Why must you go to Gongshan Furao (a rebellious steward of the Ji family)?"
To this, Confucius replied, "If he summons me, could it be merely empty words? If someone were to employ me, I would revive the Zhou rituals in the east and rebuild a Western Zhou." His reasoning was: "In the past, King Wen and King Wu (founders of the Zhou Dynasty) rose from Feng and Hao (two small territories), eventually ruling the entire realm. Though Fei (a small city in the State of Lu) is modest in size, compared to Feng and Hao—both only a hundred li (about 50 kilometers) across—it is not much worse, and there is still great hope."
According to historical records, Confucius later did not accept the summons. Shortly thereafter, the authorities of the State of Lu came to invite Confucius to participate in government affairs.